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CHECK YOUR MATH


ATLANTA - A mistaken mathematical analysis of genetic individuality made 32 years ago caused large ripple effects in the world of genetic research that are only now being corrected. The corrected analysis has profound implications for genetic interpretations of race and individuality, according to reports at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

In the Dec. 13, 1963 issue of science Dr. Jerry Hirsch, now professor emeritus of psychology and of ecology, ethology and evolution at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign presented mathematical data which led him to conclude that there were unlimited numbers of genotypes, i.e., that there was absolute uniqueness in a population.

"I had the arithmetic right. However, the interpretation was not. If you use a simple classic diagram, you can see things you never thought of. Using a graph on the same data today reveals the misinterpretation with embarrassing immediacy," noted Hirsch in an interview.

Dr. Hirsch has studied the genetics of the Drosophila fly for more than 40 years. In his 1963 article he concluded that genotypes do not repeat themselves. His conclusion was based on the number of cells in a matrix rather than the number of genotypes. Because the math was right at the time, it is likely that the error was overlooked by many researchers who relied on his data for their own studies, Hirsch said.

Based on the original incorrect interpretation, the probability of a second-born child in family having the same genotype of the first-born was 1 in 70 trillion. A modern revision based on a diagram of the same data would correct for cells in a matrix, replacing them with possible genotypes, and raise the possibility of repetition, he said.

Parts or all of the chromosomes of a genotype can be inherited. What the corrected analysis means in terms of genetic research today is that both uniqueness and repeatability exist - even partial - in any population, Hirsch said, adding:

"This changes our picture of the population. It changes our expectations -- our predictions."

For example, when a person traveling far from home is reminded of a friend's familiar face on a complete stranger, that stranger may indeed have some of the genetic makeup of the friend back home. Instead of all the chromosomes of the two individuals being the same, several could be the same, Dr. Hirsch said, "You may actually see familiar pieces [of a genotype] in the stranger."

Speaking at a news conference, Dr. Hirsch took the opportunity to renew his long-standing objection to the genetic conclusions made by Richard J. Herrnstein, a co-author of "The Bell Curve." Dr. Hirsch disputes Herrnstein's interpretation of research conducted by Arthur R. Jensen, a researcher at the University of California at Berkeley. Jensen had advocated the use of IQ tests in measuring intelligence. Dr. Hirsch also criticized the methodology and accuracy of Herrnstein's research.


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